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WHAT IS THIS PAGE ABOUT

AHStats is page about Asian Handicaps, and streaks. I believe that most bettors are overlooking benefits of Asian Handicaps, and they focus solely on Match Odds market where they have lower chance of success. Why lower?

  • Bookies almost always have bigger margin on 1x2 market than on AH
  • Draw is bookie „cash cow“, in case of draw, they win more, because people do not bet on soccer that nobody will win, they choose side. Removing draw as an option, you receive more chances of winning, or getting your stake back.
WHAT ABOUT STREAKS

AH is covered by many webpages, and streaks also. But streaks in general way, 1x2, so you can often find information that certain team won 6 games in a row, but that information is often misleading. If you want to place a bet on that team, you will too often get short odds, 1.20 (1/5) or so, and you can't beat bookie long term on those odds (if you can, I salute you). What is more important is how that team fared in Asian Handicap term in those 6 games. If they won last 6 matches, but lost on AH terms, that tells you that either the odds are wrong (they are favored too much by bookies), or that there is no value in betting on them.

Each season, in every league, bookies have power rating for all teams, and they will use them to calculate odds for every game in that season (that is how they get odds for outright). They tend to react very slowly to those few teams that are playing better than expected, and to those few that are playing worse. If Manchester United start season bad, they will not react at all on it in first few weeks, and very slowly afterwards, because they know that people will bet on Manchester United, no matter how they start season! That can leave bookies exposed for certain time, because they will give value on AH odds. They will react at one point, and even overreact, but my experience tells me that reaction comes after 10-15 games, which means that we have 5-10 games window when one teams hits the „hot“ or „cold“ streak, in which we may find value in the odds.

WHAT ARE THOSE NUMBERS NEXT TO TEAMS

That is team AH power. AH power is current team form, calculated by team last 8 played games. Only official league games will count, friendly and cup matches will not be used for this calculation. On beggining of the season, last 8 games from previous season will be used.

For each AH win team gets 2 points, for Half Win 1 point. Voided bets are worth 0 points, Half Loss -1 point, and full AH loss is worth -2 points. Team with bigger number is obviously in better form.

YOUR LEAGUE TABLE IS DIFFERENT THAN OFFICIAL LEAGUE TABLE

I don't care for official league table. In Spain, Barcelona and Real Madrid will always be on top (or near), but I haven't met a single bettor that make money on them. I did met few who oppose them on AH smartly. Those tables that you see on competition page, are only AH tables. Traditional wins and losses are not calculated here, only AH wins and losses.

SO YOU SUGGEST THAT I BET ON TEAM ON THE STREAK

Depends on the streak. If team is in losing streak, you can bet against it.

BUT EVERY STREAK WILL COME TO AN END

You are right, but sometimes that streak end can help us. If „hot“ team lose after 6 AH wins in a row, that might hold bookie from adjusting its power ratings. For me personaly, when they adjust their power ratings, I don't have an edge anymore, even if streak is still active. I know that most bettors out there don't know how to recognize when bookie adjust those, so my recommendation is that you „ride the streak“ for some time, and then get off it. Value will be gone soon, jump on another one.

CAN I MAKE MONEY FOLLOWING THOSE STREAKS

Yes you can, but you can also lose money. Betting is long term business, in which discipline is most important. No infromation will help impatient bettor, no matter how good or accurate is. Information on this page is just that – piece of information, that MIGHT help you on long run if you are disciplined. If you are not, and you are looking for quick money, it would be good that you leave sportsbetting – odds are stacked against you.

WILL THE „HOT“ TEAM FROM LAST SEASON REPEAT THOSE RESULTS

Not likely. There are two things that are against claim that good or bad team will have same numbers in two seasons. First – bookie power rating. Those ratings are made in the offseason, and results from last season will be reflected in that rating. Second – regression to the mean, statistical method which you should know about if you want to be good at betting. In AH betting, mean is always same number of Wins and Losses, and regression to the mean tells us that in the long term, with adjusted odds, teams will hardly repeat two season with same AH results.

I THINK I HAVE AN IDEA FOR YOUR PAGE

Ideas are always welcome. Please send me your idea, and if I believe it is good, and my programer can make it, we will add it to the page!