With Major League Baseball’s marathon regular season winding down, we wanted to give baseball bettors some data that will help their betting, both in the season’s final days and in the early playoff rounds to come. Read on to find out the three most important points on each American League contender.
- Team’s offensive BABIP for the season is .293. For the last month: .257.
- Just 17 stolen bases and 6 triples for the season. Ignore opposing catcher defense.
- For all their power, Baltimore’s wOBA vs. lefties is just .299, worst in the American League.
Boston Red Sox
- 32.9 lineup WAR as of Sept. 20th is 33% better than any other AL team (2nd place Indians have 24.8)
- Easily baseball’s best lineup vs. righties, topping both wRC+ and wOBA by a sizable margin.
- Bullpen has an MLB best 2.30 ERA in the last month.
- Bullpen has AL-best 3.34 ERA in last month.
- Speculation exists that Manager Terry Francona, faced with replacing starting pitchers Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, may resort to unusually high bullpen usage as a means of balancing the effect of using sub-standard starting pitchers.
- The AL’s biggest home road splits. Cleveland’s wRC+ at home is 121; away it’s 84. That’s a shocking disparity.
- Offense has fallen on hard times, ranking in the bottom third of the league in wRC, wOBA and lineup WAR from Sept. 5th-25th.
- The American League’s worst baserunning team in 2016 (by BSR).
- For all the Rookie of the Year talk surrounding starting pitcher Michael Fulmer, he hasn’t been the same pitcher over his last five starts, with greatly decreased strikeout rates and increased hittability.
- Offense has been in a major funk, with its wOBA of .303 over the last 30 days ranking 25th in MLB despite now-injured Alex Bregman breaking out.
- Bullpen has been unheralded, but incredibly steady: American League top three in ERA, FIP and xFIP over the last thirty days, AL-best in FIP and xFIP for the season.
- Houston prefers to pitch at home, with a league-best 3.45 xFIP at home, compared to 4.25 away.
- Mariners are baseball’s best offensive team versus lefties according to wRC.
- According to FIP, pitching has only been league average over the last two weeks, during which they’ve easily had a league-best ERA of 2.54.
- Variance can be key, but expect some regression.
- 35-10 in 1-run games, a record pace. There’s clearly a degree of luck at work here
- Their bullpen has been one of the worst in the league in 2016, though a large portion of their failures have come from since-departed or –demoted relievers.
- A top third offense versus lefties, but below average vs. righties.
Toronto Blue Jays
- The team’s vaunted offense has mustered just a 99 wRC+ in the last 30 days.
- The bullpen, which appeared to be fixed with the additions of Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit, has fallen apart: 5.34 ERA in the last month ranks 27th in MLB.